Currency:
EBITDA Exit Multiple
Price per share
Possible Upside/Downside
Intrinsic Value
How the value is built
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Assumptions
Open a section to change it. Grey values come from the company's own numbers; anything you change turns gold and is remembered for this ticker.
Years to exit
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Growth fades in a straight line from the first year to this one.
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Leave empty to discount at the cost of equity.
EBITDA forecast
Click any projected cell to type your own number: revenue, growth, EBITDA or margin. The exit multiple is applied to the EBITDA of the last year.
Reported
Analyst consensus
From assumptions
Your input
Sensitivity
Value per share today for other EBITDA margins (rows) and exit multiples (columns).
What the price implies
The exit multiple that makes this model equal today's price, with everything else as you set it.
How this valuation is calculated
- Revenue starts from the last reported fiscal year. Where Wall Street analysts publish a revenue consensus (usually the next two fiscal years) it is used by default; after that, growth fades in a straight line to your final-year rate.
- EBITDA = revenue × EBITDA margin. The historical EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortization, so one-off gains below the operating line are left out.
- Enterprise value at exit = EBITDA of the last forecast year × the exit EV/EBITDA multiple: what the market would pay for the whole business at that point.
- Equity value at exit = enterprise value − today's net debt (debt minus cash). Net debt is held constant, a conservative choice: the model does not assume the company pays its debt down.
- Target price = equity value ÷ today's shares outstanding (all share classes).
- Value today = target price ÷ (1 + r)t, where t is the time from today to the end of the last forecast year and r is the cost of equity (risk-free + beta × (market return − risk-free)) or your own required return. The cost of equity is used, not the WACC, because the debt has already been subtracted.
- Not included: dividends paid along the way. For a company that pays a large dividend this understates the value a little.